
Russian
President Vladimir Putin treats sanctions against his country as a
laughing matter. (Image source: Video still from « Ich, Putin »)
Putin shows that what Western elders call « international
law » only exists if Western powers are strong enough to enforce it. He
shows they are not.
Rogue leaders around the world are watching and drawing their own conclusions.
If massing troops on the borders of Ukraine and annexing Crimea are
signs of « weakness, » by its evident impotence, America appears even
weaker.
In a result known in advance, on March 16, the residents of Crimea,
who include vast numbers of retired Russian army officers, voted
overwhelmingly to leave Ukraine and join Russia.
Reactions in the Western World were also known in advance. The U.S.
government and European leaders said they would not recognize the vote,
and they did not recognize it — or the subsequent annexation.
Angela Merkel suggested that Russia’s President, Vladimir Putin, had «
lost touch with reality. » U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry accused Putin of behaving as if it were the «
nineteenth century« . Barack Obama criticized Putin for «
violating international law » and announced toothless sanctions on a few of his friends and one company.
But the sanctions imposed on Russia by the European Union and Western
European countries are empty gestures. Putin knows this and treats them
as a laughing matter.
The decision to suspend Russia from the G8 is essentially a sign of powerlessness. Sergei Lavrov said the decision was «
not a big problem » for his country. An American columnist aptly said that suspending Russia from the G8 was «
like suspending a vegan from a steakhouse« .
Putin knows that Europe presently needs Russia more than Russia needs Europe
He did not go « too far »: he went as far as he could. He evidently
never stopped believing that the countries that were part of the Soviet
Union had to remain under Russia’s influence and that their integration
into the European Union and NATO would be a mortal danger to Russia’s
survival.
He shows that what Western leaders call « international law » only
exists if Western powers are strong enough, politically and militarily,
to enforce it. He shows they are not.
If he thinks that it is necessary and possible for Russia to
intervene in the Russian-speaking regions of Ukraine, he will do it. If
he thinks that it is neither necessary nor possible, he will not do it.
When Georgia moved closer to the European Union and NATO, Putin
waited for the right time to act, and he acted. In 2008, South Ossetia
and Abkhazia were detached from Georgia by Russian military
intervention.
He knew that Russia could not afford to lose Sevastopol, its only warm water harbor. By annexing Crimea, he annexed Sevastopol.
He apparently considers that he has in front of him a weak and
declining America. And the general demeanor of the present U.S.
administration tends to prove him right. The United States seem in full
retreat. U.S.
military budgets continue to fall.
For the last five years, Barack Obama spoke of « ending » the wars in
which the U.S. was involved, and he depends on Russia’s cooperation for
further negotiations with Iran, for dismantling chemical weapons in
Syria, and for withdrawing U.S. troops from Afghanistan. Putin
doubtlessly thinks that Obama will not enter into an open conflict with
Russia. Sanctions imposed on Russia by the United States are
insignificant, and Putin has every reason to think they will not
increase.
Putin evidently considers Europe even weaker than America. The way
European leaders speak and act shows that he is not wrong. For decades,
Western European countries relied on U.S. defense umbrella; none of them
today has an army capable of doing more than extremely limited
operations. Their foreign policy positions converge with the Obama
administration positions. They all have deep economic and financial
links with Russia and cannot break these links. The UK needs the Russian
capital
invested in the City of London. France cannot cancel its
Russian warship contract without having to close its shipyards in Saint Nazaire, and without being confronted with major social conflicts.
Germany could not survive long
without Russian oil and natural gas. Overall, Russia provides thirty
percent of the natural gas consumed in Western Europe. Putin apparently
thinks that Europe will not enter into an open conflict with Russia.
The political part of the EU-Ukraine Association Agreement will not
change the situation in Crimea or Ukraine. The European Union has
pledged $15 billion to Ukraine (but
help hinges on an IMF deal). Ukraine must repay $13 billion to
creditors before the end of 2014. As it will remain dependent on energy
supplies from Russia, one week ago Russia said that Ukraine must pay off
$2 billion it owes for gas. Ukraine is on the
verge of bankruptcy. The current situation could lead Ukraine to full bankruptcy.
Putin has massed troops on the borders of Eastern Ukraine. He will
probably decide to wait until the situation worsens and the impotence of
the United States and Europe becomes even more obvious. He could annex
Crimea without firing a single bullet. He doubtlessly thinks that he
will later be able to do the same with the rest of Ukraine.
Either the West will stand up to Putin, and it will have to do it
fast, or Putin will win. Obviously, Europe will not stand up. Polls
indicate that Americans are turning sharply toward
isolationism. Showing his view of the situation, Obama recently said that Russia is nothing but a « regional power », acting «
out of weakness« .
Russia covers ten time zones and has borders with Europe, the Muslim
Middle East, China, North Korea, and Alaska. If massing troops on the
borders of Ukraine and annexing Crimea are signs of « weakness, » by its
evident impotence, America appears even weaker.
Several plebiscites have been held since 2006 in Transnistria, a
strip of land between Ukraine and Moldova, and each of them has
indicated a
willingness to join Russia.
Estonia includes a large Russian minority, and Russian leaders in Moscow speak of the need to
« protect » the Russian population of Estonia.
Russian Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs Sergei Ryabkov recently
stated that the position of Russia vis-à-vis negotiations on a nuclear
Iran could «
change« .
Rogue leaders around the world are watching and drawing their own conclusions.
Khamenei sees no reason to stop saying that America is the « Great Satan » and that Israel has to be
wiped off the map. China sees no reason to hide its intention to
occupy the Senkaku / Diyaoyu Islands. Last week, North Korea’s Kim Jong Un
fired six missiles into the sea of Japan. Nicolás Maduro of Venezuela reaffirmed its alliance with Russia and
positioned Russian missiles in Caracas.
U.S. allies are anxious.
The West tried to attract Ukraine. But their present leaders did not
take into account how Russia could react if Ukraine were seduced. They
did not take into account that Ukraine is a special territory: for Russians, it is the land of Kievan Rus, the cradle of Russian history.
Ukraine is paying the price of their irresponsible attitude. The rest of the world can also quickly pay the price.
The world order built after the Second World War was shaped by
America. For almost five decades, its goal was to contain Soviet
expansion. In the late 1980s, the Soviet empire collapsed, and another
phase began: an arrangement in which America would keep the peace and
assure the survival of liberty.
America has apparently abrogated that responsibility.
If we do not see the Ukraine as a warning signal, we could quickly
discover that life could now easily enter the state of nature in
Hobbes’s
Leviathan: nasty, brutish and short.
© Guy Milliere for
The Gatestone Institute